SUMMARY:
- Drought conditions (D1–D4) increased to 49% of the state from 42% of the state four weeks ago; statewide reservoir storage increased slightly to 76% full, about 7 percentage points below normal for this time of year.
- We remain in La Niña conditions with a 66% chance of a return of neutral conditions during the March-April-May season.
- Drought is expected to remain and expand in over much of the state.
I wrote this article on February 28 and March 2, 2025.
As I showed last month, Texas, as a whole, was slightly wetter than normal in 2024. However, the northeastern part of the state received rainfall above and beyond normal while the South-Central Texas to the West received far less than normal rainfall. In fact, given the multi-year drought in this part of the state, it is likely that we are seeing new droughts of records being established.
For example, the Nueces River appears to be in a new drought of record with record low levels in the basin’s reservoirs (Figure 1a, b). Canyon Lake in the upper Guadalupe Basin is also at record low levels suggesting a new drought of record (Figure 1c). Lakes Amistad and Falcon on the Rio Grande are also at record lows (Figure 1d). And even the Highland Lakes may be in a new drought of record despite changes to the lake management plan after the last drought of record established in 2009 to 2015 (Figure 1e, f). Flows at Comal and San Marcos springs are approaching historic lows, but the aquifer is probably still aways away from drought of record conditions (Figure g, h).
So what the rest of the year look like? In short, not good. La Niña conditions favor warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal conditions—something we have been experiencing—and that may carry us into our traditionally hot and dry summer months. Although it’s too early to seriously prognosticate, projections suggest a decent chance of the next winter also falling under La Niña’s spell. As a default, our “new normal” is now warmer than the warmest years of the Dust Bowl and the Drought of the 1950s. These warmer-than-before conditions favor less runoff and recharge in the state, especially in the transition zone between the wet east and the dry west. And the Edwards Plateau may be creating a feedback loop that enhances and entrenches high pressure systems over the Hill Country.
Ultimately, we don’t know what will happen. We might get lucky with a spring dowsing or a visit from a “mellow tropical system.” But with the scientific tea leaves leaning hot and dry, it’d be best for us to plan accordingly.
Figure 1a: Reservoir storage in Choke Canyon, a water source for Corpus Christi (graph from Texas Water Development Board).
Figure 1b: Reservoir storage in Lake Corpus Christi, a water source for Corpus Christi (graph from Texas Water Development Board).
Figure 1c: Reservoir storage in Canyon Lake, a water source for various public water supplies in the Hill Country and Central Texas areas (graph from Texas Water Development Board).
Figure 1d: Reservoir storage in Lakes Amistad and Falcon, water sources for the Lower Rio Grande Valley (graph from Texas Water Development Board).
Figure 1e: Reservoir storage in Lake Travis (graph from Texas Water Development Board).
Figure 1f: Reservoir storage in Lake Buchanan (graph from Texas Water Development Board).
Figure 1g: Flow in Comal Springs (graph from U.S. Geological Survey).
Figure 1h: Flow in San Marcos Springs (graph from U.S. Geological Survey).
We got Ye Olde Standard Texas Precipitation Pattern in February with wetter conditions in the east and drier conditions in the west (Figure 2a). However, a sizable part of West and Far West Texas received less than 0.01 inches of rainfall (Figure 2a). Although some parts of the state benefited from rain, almost the entire state saw substantially less than normal rainfall (Figure 2b).
Figure 2a: Inches of precipitation that fell in Texas in February 2025 (modified from source). Note that cooler colors indicate lower values and warmer indicate higher values.
Figure 2b: Rainfall as a percent of normal for February 2025 (modified from source).
The amount of the state under drought conditions (D1–D4) increased from 42% four weeks ago to 49% today (Figure 3a) with degradation over much of the state (Figure 3b). Extreme Drought or worse increased from 16% of the state four weeks ago to 17% today with exceptional drought remaining that same at 6.3% (Figure 3a). In all, 80% of the state is abnormally dry or worse (D0–D4; Figure 3a), up from 53% four weeks ago.
Figure 3a: Drought conditions in Texas according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (as of February 27, 2025; source)
Figure 3b: Changes in the U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas between January 28, 2025, and February 25, 2025 (source).
The North American Drought Monitor, which runs a month behind current conditions, shows drought across the North American continent but especially in the Southwest (Figure 4a). The Rio Grande Basin north of Elephant Butte Reservoir shows moderate to severe drought (Figure 4a). The Rio Conchos basin in Mexico, which confluences with the Rio Grande just above Presidio and hosts the largest tributary to the Lower Rio Grande, remains in Moderate to Severe (Figure 4a).
Conservation storage in Elephant Butte Reservoir—an important source of water for the El Paso area—increased from 12% full four weeks ago to 13% more recently (Figure 4b), still about 15 percentage points below a rather pitiful median storage of 25 percent full.
Combined conservation storage in the Amistad and Falcon reservoirs increased slightly to 21.4% full from 21.2% four weeks ago and is almost 40 percentage points below normal for this time of year and the lowest in at least the past 33 years for this time of year (Figure 4c).
Figure 4a: The North American Drought Monitor for January 31, 2025 (source). Most flows in the Rio Grande from Big Bend downstream source from the Rio Conchos in Mexico.
Figure 4b: Reservoir storage in Elephant Butte Reservoir (upper graph) since 2023 with the median, min, and max for measurements from 1990 through 2024 (lower graph) (graphs from Texas Water Development Board).
Figure 4c: Reservoir storage in Amistad and Falcon reservoirs (upper graph) since 2023 with the median, min, and max for measurements from 1990 through 2024 (lower graph) (graphs from Texas Water Development Board).
Basins across the state continue to host flows over the past week below historical 25th, 10th, and 5th percentiles (Figure 5a). Statewide reservoir storage is at 75.7% full, up about 1.6 million acre-feet from 75.2% four weeks ago but about 7 percentage points below normal for this time of year (Figure 5b). The orange reservoir in the Dallas-Fort Worth area (the persimmon in a sea of blueberries) is New Terrell City Lake and has dropped from full in early March 2024 (Figure 5c). The Lake is no longer used for water supply and appears to be undergoing long-term maintenance work.
My (drumroll please) Hydrograph of the Month is Toledo Bend due to its being in the news lately as a source of piped water to other parts of the state (Figure 5d). Toledo Bend stays mostly full (normal = 96% full for this time of year) but did dip to about 60% full during the 2011-2015 drought, so it is still susceptible to drought (Figure 5d).
Figure 5a: Parts of the state with below-25th-percentile seven-day average streamflow as of March 2, 2025 (map modified from U.S. Geological Survey).
Figure 5b: Statewide reservoir storage (upper graph) since 2023 compared to statistics (median, min, and max) for statewide storage from 1990 through 2024 (lower graph) (graphs from Texas Water Development Board).
Figure 5c: Reservoir storage as of March 2, 2025, in the major reservoirs of the state (modified from Texas Water Development Board).
Figure 5d: Hydrograph of the Month—Reservoir storage for Toledo Bend on the border with Lousiana (graph from Texas Water Development Board).
We are still under a La Niña Advisory albeit a weak and likely short one (Figure 6a). There is a 66% change that La Niña transitions to neutral conditions (La Nada) sometime during the March-April-May season (Figure 6a, b).
Figure 6a. Forecasts of sea-surface temperature anomalies for the Niño 3.4 Region as of January 21, 2025 (modified from Climate Prediction Center and others). “Range of model predictions -1” is the range of the various statistical and dynamical models’ projections minus the most outlying upper and lower projections. Sometimes those predictive models get a little craycray.
Figure 6b. Probabilistic forecasts of El Niño, La Niña, and La Nada (neutral) conditions (graph from Climate Prediction Center and others).
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook through May shows drought and drought development over nearly the entire state (Figure 7a). The three-month temperature outlook projects above-average temperatures for most of the state (Figure 7b) while the three-month precipitation outlook favors rainfall deficits for most of the state (Figure 7c).
Figure 7a: The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for March 1 through May 31, 2025 (source).
Figure 7b: Three-month temperature outlook for March-April-May 2025 (source).
Figure 7c: Three-month precipitation outlook for March-April-May 2025 (source).