outlook+water: La Niña watch, the month the rain stopped, and drought is coming for us all

SUMMARY:

• Drought conditions (D1–D4) increased to 24% of the state from 20% four weeks ago; statewide reservoir storage decreased to 75.6% full from 77.3% four weeks ago, about 4 percentage points below normal for this time of year.
• We are under a La Niña Watch for the fall and winter.
• Last month, there was no drought projected in Texas over the next three months; this month, the whole dang state is projected to be in drought. 

I wrote this article on October 3, 2025

The big news this month is the Fast-and-Furious-worthy 180 of the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook. The Outlook abruptly changed from projecting not a drip of drought development in Texas from last month through November to projecting the whole dang joint in drought (except for the tippy-toppiest part of the Panhandle) (Figure 1a).

THIS MONTH’S PROJECTION

Indeed, drought conditions are back for Central Texas. Folks are calling it a flash drought; I’m calling it getting-back-to-our-regularly-scheduled program. The storms in July were a freak event, a natural disaster newsflash that interrupted our dry-humored binge-watching of Curb Your Enthusiasm. And the show ain’t over, folks.

The hurricane season has been a bust, as you can tell from the left-at-the-altar faces of Jim Cantori and crew at The Weather Channel. Here in Texas, we’ve only been cheek-pecked by Barry; everything else has been out in the offshore Atlantic. We’re still on the high backside of the season (Figure 1b), but the month is draining fast.  

Finally, in response to an ever-present, multi-decadal threat to its water supply and its need for a reliable source for itself and for industry, Corpus Christi has been considering seawater desalination. However, the city forcefully placed the plant on the back burner due to rising costs. I’m not sure that’s wise. The city’s largest source, Choke Canyon Reservoir, hasn’t been full since 2007, and it is at a record low of 11.4% full (and is still sinking). Lake Corpus Christi is near a historic low at 15% full. We need more than thoughts and prayers to have enough water for our families and future.

Except for blotches of five or more inches in random extremities of the state, most of us saw less than two inches in September (Figure 2a). Except for the Panhandle and Far West Texas, the state experienced less than normal rainfall amounts (Figure 2b).

The amount of the state under drought conditions (D1–D4) increased slightly from 20% four weeks ago to 24% today (Figure 3a), with degradation over a large part of central Texas (Figure 3b). Extreme drought or worse decreased to 3% of the state from 4% four weeks ago, with exceptional drought remaining the same at 0.3% (Figure 3a). In all, 63% of the state is abnormally dry or worse (D0–D4; Figure 3a), up from 38% four weeks ago.

The North American Drought Monitor, which runs a month behind current conditions, shows drought in the American Southwest, with smatterings in the northern part of the continent (Figure 4a). The Rio Conchos basin in Mexico, which confluences with the Rio Grande just above Presidio and hosts the largest tributary to the Lower Rio Grande, is currently experiencing a moderate to extreme drought (Figure 4a). That giant blob of drought in the American Southwest is troubling, as it portends larger, more systematic conditions that could (and are expected to) spill over into the land of Tex-Mex.

Conservation storage in Elephant Butte Reservoir—an important source of water for the El Paso area—remains at 3.4% (Figure 4b), about 20 percentage points below a rather pitiful median storage of 22 percent full. Current levels in the reservoir are flirting with lows not seen in at least 35 years.

Combined conservation storage in the Amistad and Falcon reservoirs increased from 26.9% full four weeks ago to 26.2% full today, about 20 percentage points below normal for this time of year (Figure 4c).

Basins across the state continue to host flows below the historical 25^th, 10^th, and 5^th percentiles over the past week (Figure 5a). Statewide reservoir storage is down from 77.3% full four weeks ago to 75.6% today, about 4 percentage points below normal for this time of year (Figure 5b). The reservoir marked in reddish-orange in the Dallas-Fort Worth area (the persimmon in a sea of blueberries) is New Terrell City Lake and has dropped from full in early March 2024 (Figure 5c). The Lake is no longer used for water supply and appears to be undergoing long-term maintenance work.

My (drumroll please) “Hydrograph of the Month” is Choke Canyon Reservoir in honor of the Corpus Christ pausing construction on a seawater desalination plant (Figure 5d). Reservoir levels in Choke Canyon are at historic lows (and heading lower).

We continue to be under a La Niña Watch for the fall-winter season (Figure 6a) with a 71% chance of La Niña conditions during October through December, decreasing to 54% in December through February (Figure 6b). If we get one, it sure looks to be a weak one (Figure 6b), with a return to neutral conditions favored for February through March (Figure 6b).

The new U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook is a complete U-turn from last month, with drought remaining and developing through December in all of Texas, except the northernmost part of the Panhandle (Figure 7a). The three-month temperature outlook projects (surprise, surprise [yawn…]) above-average temperatures for most of the state (Figure 7b) while the three-month precipitation outlook favors below-normal rainfall for all of the state (Figure 7c).