outlook+water: La Niña is here, the second month the rain stopped, and drought and The Blob are coming for us all

SUMMARY:

• Drought conditions (D1–D4) increased to 33% of the state, up from 24% four weeks ago; statewide reservoir storage decreased to 73.9% full, down from 75.6% four weeks ago, about 6 percentage points below normal for this time of year.
• We are now a La Niña Advisory with a 55% chance of La Niña conditions continuing into the January-March season.
• Most of the state is projected to be in drought over the next three months.

I wrote this article on November 3, 2025

Out yonder in the Pacific Ocean is something scientists are referring to as The Blob. As a fan of horror movies (including 1958’s The Blob and John Carpenter’s excellent The Thing from 1982), calling something “The Blob” does not portend good things.

The Blob refers to an oceanic heat wave in the Pacific, affecting weather along the Pacific coast and, presumably, Texas. This marine heat wave has raised water temperatures by 9 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this time of year. On top of all this is La Niña. It’s unclear if the collision of The Blob and La Niña is an epic battle akin to Godzilla v. Kong, thus canceling out their effects, or if they will work together to fight a Mechagodzilla possessed by Ghidorah’s consciousness.

Ironically, the warming may be due to efforts to reduce air pollution, both in global ship traffic and in China. Air pollution has collectively resulted in about 0.5 degrees Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of cooling. Addressing non-carbon-equivalent air pollution results in additional warming. Increased warming is higher in higher latitudes, thus decreasing wind energy, which may be impacting weather in the region and affecting the jet stream. Research is ongoing to better understand these dynamics and what it might mean for our weather.

Except for blotches of five or more inches in small parts of North-Central and East Texas, most of us saw less than three or two inches in October (Figure 2a). Except for the El Paso area and a few random blotches, the state saw less than normal amounts of rainfall (Figure 2b).

The amount of the state under drought conditions (D1–D4) increased from 24% four weeks ago to 33% today (Figure 3a), with degradation (and some improvements) across the state (Figure 3b). Extreme drought or worse rose to 4% of the state from 3% four weeks ago, while exceptional drought declined to 0.15% (Figure 3a). In all, 77% of the state is abnormally dry or worse (D0–D4; Figure 3a), up from 63% four weeks ago.

The North American Drought Monitor, which was not updated last month (a victim of the government shutdown?), shows continued drought in the American Southwest with smatterings in the northern part of the continent (Figure 4a). The Rio Conchos basin in Mexico, which confluences with the Rio Grande just above Presidio and hosts the largest tributary to the Lower Rio Grande, remains in moderate to extreme drought (Figure 4a). That giant blob of drought in the American Southwest is troubling since it portends larger, more systematic conditions that could (and are expected to) spill over into the land of Tex-Mex.

Conservation storage in Elephant Butte Reservoir—an important source of water for the El Paso area—increased to 4.3% full from 3.4% four weeks ago (Figure 4b), about 20 percentage points below a rather pitiful median storage of 22 percent full. Current levels in the reservoir are flirting with lows not seen in at least 35 years. 

Combined conservation storage in the Amistad and Falcon reservoirs increased from 26.2% full four weeks ago to 26.5% full today, about 20 percentage points below normal for this time of year (Figure 4c).

Basins across the state continue to host flows over the past week below historical 25^th, 10^th, and 5^th percentiles (Figure 5a). Statewide reservoir storage is down from 75.6% full four weeks ago to 73.9% today, about 6 percentage points below normal for this time of year (Figure 5b). The reservoir marked in reddish-orange in the Dallas-Fort Worth area (the persimmon in a sea of blueberries) is New Terrell City Lake and has dropped from full in early March 2024 (Figure 5c). The Lake is no longer used for water supply and appears to be undergoing long-term maintenance work.

My (drumroll please) “Hydrograph of the Month” is Lake Corpus Christi in honor of the Corpus Christ pausing construction on a seawater desalination plant (Figure 5d). Reservoir levels in Choke Canyon are at historic lows (and heading lower).

We are now under a La Niña Advisory (that is, La Niña is here) for the fall-winter season (Figure 6a), with a 55% chance that these conditions will continue into the January through March season (Figure 6b). This La Niña is projected to be a weak one, but it sure seems to be affecting our weather (and the projections thereof).  

The new U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook shows drought remaining and developing through January throughout Texas, except for parts of the High Plains (Figure 7a). The three-month temperature outlook projects (surprise, surprise [yawn…]) above-average temperatures for most of the state (Figure 7b), while the three-month precipitation outlook favors below-normal rainfall for most of the state south of the Red River region (Figure 7c).