Summary: 2022 was the 11th warmest, 13th driest, and 10th drouthiest on record for Texas, the next three months are expected to be warmer and drier than normal, and La Niña is still expected to transition to neutral conditions between February and April, with an 82% chance of neutral conditions existing for the March to May season.
Category: outlook+water
outlook+water: Drought continues to improve, La Niña’s days are numbered, reservoirs levels rising
Summary: 75% of the state is abnormally dry or worse, and 52% of the state is in drought, equal chances for La Niña or neutral conditions for the January-March season and a 71% chance of neutral conditions for the February-April season, and reservoir storage is still 10% below normal, but it’s been creeping up.
outlook+water: Drought improves but remains, La Niña still expected thru February, reservoirs levels up slightly
Summary: 87% of the state is abnormally dry or worse, and 63% of the state is in drought, 76% chance of La Niña conditions remaining December–February with a 57% chance of neutral conditions arriving in February–April, and warmer and drier than normal conditions are projected for most of Texas for December-January-February.
outlook+water: Drought roars back, La Niña expected thru February, expect a warmer and drier winter
Summary: The rain spigot slammed shut except for parts of West Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley, there’s a 75% chance of La Niña conditions remaining through November-February, and NOAA’s Winter Outlook projects warmer and drier than normal conditions for Texas (but a persimmon in Johnson City projects snow).
outlook+water: Major drought improvements, drought expected to return, here comes the tropical season
Summary: The amount of the state under drought decreased from 94.8% four weeks ago to 60.1% today, 91% chance of hot and dry La Niña conditions to continue through November, and the Atlantic is churning with tropical storms.