Summary: The amount of the state under drought conditions (D1–D4) decreased from five weeks ago at 39% to 23% this week, with drought improvements across much of the state. El Niño conditions have a 90% chance of extending through the February-March-April season, giving way to neutral conditions in April-May-June and greater odds of La Niña conditions in the fall. Last year was the warmest on record for Texas, a full 3.5 F warmer than the long-term average.
Category: outlook+water
outlook+water: Drought improvements continue, drought blazes in Central and Far West Texas, and El Niño may end early
Summary: The amount of the state under drought conditions (D1–D4) decreased from four weeks ago at 44% to 39% this week. Extreme-to-exceptional drought in Far West, Central, and Southeast Texas continues to blaze with drought and is expected to continue in Far West and Central Texas over the next three months. El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the March-April-May season.
outlook+water: Drought nearly halved, El Niño through (maybe) may, less than a one in three chance of drought ending by the end of May
Summary: The amount of the state under drought conditions (D1–D4) decreased from four weeks ago at 75% to 44% this week. El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the March-April-May season. By one measure, the odds of drought ending in the state by the end of May range from 8% to 32%.
outlook+water: Short-term improvements, drought expected to linger, and winter is coming
Summary: The amount of the state under drought conditions (D1–D4) decreased from four weeks ago at 81% to 75% this week (with more improvements on the way).The winter projection shows normal temperatures and wetter-than-normal conditions for Texas, but drought conditions are expected to persist.
outlook+water: Drought remains, wetter-than-normal conditions may be on the way, and the odds of a super El Niño
Summary: The amount of the state under drought conditions (D1–D4) increased slightly from five weeks ago at 79% to 81% this week, the seasonal projection suggests wetter-than-normal conditions are on the way, and the odds of a Super El Niño look slim, but the odds of a strong El Nino are at 71%.