Category: outlook+water

Summary: Drought down (but not out), with 61% of the state abnormally dry or worse. The Climate Prediction Center’s El Niño Watch continues with a 90% chance of El Niño conditions forming during May-June-July. Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected for the entire state, with normal rainfall for everyone except Far West Texas, where drier-than-normal conditions are expected.

Summary: The Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch with a 62% chance of conditions forming during May-June-July with an 80% chance in late summer. The amount of the state under drought conditions remained the same from four weeks ago at 58%, with drought intensity decreasing in the southern third of the coastal plains. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected over the next three months, with normal rainfall except for the High Plains and Far West Texas, where drier than normal conditions are expected.

Summary: La Niña is no more! Neutral (La Nada) conditions are expected to hold through summer with a 60% chance of El Niño this fall, drought conditions have grown to encompass 64% of the state, with extreme or worse drought conditions intensifying to include 14% of the state, and statewide reservoir storage remained about the same at 75% full.

Summary: Drought conditions have grown to encompass 58% of the state, with extreme or worse drought conditions intensifying to include 10% of the state, statewide reservoir storage increased by 1.2 million acre-feet to 75% full, and La Niña is expected to transition to neutral conditions over the next couple of months (with a possible El Niño in the fall).

Summary: 2022 was the 11th warmest, 13th driest, and 10th drouthiest on record for Texas, the next three months are expected to be warmer and drier than normal, and La Niña is still expected to transition to neutral conditions between February and April, with an 82% chance of neutral conditions existing for the March to May season.